Federal Workforce Shrinks Under New Attrition Law: 1-for-3 Hiring Rule Starts 2026, Caps Set for 2028

The "Reducing the Federal Workforce Through Attrition Act" aims to shrink the federal government, and here's how it might impact everyday services and job security.

Slimming Down Uncle Sam

This new law sets out to reduce the number of federal employees across various agencies. It starts by limiting how many new hires agencies can bring on board. Between the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 and September 30, 2027, agencies can only hire one new employee for every three that leave. Think of it like a "one in, three out" policy. By fiscal year 2028, the total number of federal employees across all agencies is capped at 90% of what it was on September 30, 2025. So, if an agency had 100 employees in 2025, they'd be down to a maximum of 90 by 2028, achieved through natural attrition (retirements, resignations, etc.).

Real-World Rollout

How might this play out? Imagine a local Social Security office where three caseworkers retire. Under this law, the office can only hire one replacement. This could mean longer wait times for people applying for benefits or seeking assistance. Or consider a national park where several park rangers leave—the park might only be able to hire a fraction of the replacements, potentially impacting visitor services and maintenance. The law directs the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to keep a close eye on agency staffing levels, with strict penalties for exceeding the caps. Agencies over the limit will face a hiring freeze, restrictions on remote work, and limits on official time (time spent on union activities). (SEC. 2)

Challenges and Checks

While the goal is to reduce government spending, there are a few catches. The President can waive these rules during wartime, national security concerns, or "extraordinary emergencies." (SEC. 2) This gives the President considerable power, and it remains to be seen how broadly these exceptions will be applied. Another challenge is the potential for agencies to shift work to contractors. The law says agencies can't increase service contracts unless it saves the government money, but it doesn't provide strong enforcement. (SEC. 2) It does not prevent Federal employees from transferring between agencies if the receiving agency is in compliance with the requirements of this section. (SEC. 2)

The Big Picture

This law is essentially a long-term plan to downsize the federal government. It's built on the idea that a smaller workforce is a more efficient one. However, it also raises questions about how agencies will maintain services with fewer staff. It's a bit like asking a restaurant to serve the same number of customers with fewer cooks and servers – something's gotta give. The law also intersects with existing laws governing federal employment (defined in title 5 of the United States Code) (SEC. 2), but it specifically states that these workforce reductions are not subject to collective bargaining agreements, meaning unions have limited power to negotiate these changes. (SEC. 2). This law could mean a leaner government, but the devil, as always, is in the details – and in how those details impact the services regular folks rely on.