This bill mandates a Congressional Budget Office study on the long-term economic and societal impacts of immigration policies implemented starting in 2025.
Yassamin Ansari
Representative
AZ-3
This act mandates the Congressional Budget Office, in collaboration with the Council of Economic Advisers, to conduct a comprehensive study on the long-term economic impacts of potential mass deportation policies enacted after January 20, 2025. The study will analyze effects on industries, public safety, GDP, tax revenue, and more over a 20 to 40-year period. Relevant federal agencies are required to provide necessary data to complete this analysis.
New Bill Mandates 40-Year Economic Forecast of 2025 Immigration Policies and Mass Deportation Impacts
The Studying Disastrous Impacts of Mass Deportation Act moves to put a price tag on major shifts in immigration enforcement. Specifically, it requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to look 20 to 40 years into the future to determine how immigration policies starting January 20, 2025, will ripple through the American economy. Under Section 2, the CBO Director has a tight deadline to finish this report—either within 180 days of the bill becoming law or by the end of the 119th Congress. This isn't just a quick glance at the books; it’s a deep dive into how mass deportation and shifting border policies might change the financial landscape for the next two generations.
Mapping the Financial Fallout
This study is required to get granular about how these policies affect the things that move the needle on your daily life. Under the 'Study Content' provisions, the CBO must analyze impacts on specific industries—think agriculture, construction, or tech—and how they might struggle or change if their workforce shifts abruptly. It also looks at 'productivity and technological innovation,' essentially asking if losing certain workers slows down the pace of new ideas or business growth. For a small business owner on Main Street, the study aims to calculate how changes in consumer spending and local investment might affect their bottom line when a significant portion of the community is removed or living in fear.
The Cost of Fear and Tax Revenue
One of the more unique requirements of this bill is the mandate to study public safety and crime resulting from 'pervasive fear.' This looks at whether people stop reporting crimes or interacting with local services when they are afraid of deportation, and what that does to neighborhood safety. Beyond the social impact, the bill focuses heavily on the 'net fiscal impact.' Section 2 requires the CBO to track tax revenue changes at the Federal, State, and local levels. For the average taxpayer, this means the report would clarify if mass deportations end up costing more in lost tax contributions and enforcement expenses than they save in public services.
Opening the Federal Vaults
To make sure this isn't just a bunch of guesses, the bill grants the CBO unprecedented access to the 'good' data. The Department of Homeland Security, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and even the IRS are required to hand over any data the CBO Director deems 'necessary and appropriate' for the study. By forcing these agencies to share their internal numbers, the bill aims to create a highly accurate map of how money flows—or stops flowing—when immigration laws change. The final results must be made public, giving every office worker and tradesperson a chance to see the projected long-term bill for the country's current immigration direction.