Census to Ask Citizenship Question, Non-Citizens Excluded from Congressional Counts Starting 2030

The "Equal Representation Act" mandates a citizenship question on the 2030 census and all future censuses, and it's going to change how congressional representation and electoral votes are calculated. The bill requires the Census Bureau to ask every household to specify whether each member is a U.S. citizen, a U.S. national but not a citizen, an alien lawfully residing in the U.S., or an alien unlawfully residing in the U.S. This information must be made public for each state within 120 days of the census being completed (SEC. 2).

Counting Citizens Only

The biggest shift? Only citizens will be counted when determining how many representatives each state gets in Congress, starting with the 2030 census (SEC. 3). This departs from the current method, which counts all residents, regardless of citizenship status. The same goes for Electoral College votes, which are based on the number of representatives and senators.

• Real-World Example: Imagine a city with a large immigrant population, both documented and undocumented. Under current rules, everyone counts toward representation. With this new law, only citizens in that city will be factored into the state's total for determining congressional districts and electoral votes. This could mean fewer representatives and a smaller voice in federal elections for states and areas with significant non-citizen populations.

Potential Kinks in the System

This bill is likely to face some hurdles. One major concern is the potential for undercounting. If people, especially in immigrant communities, are hesitant to answer the citizenship question, it could lead to an inaccurate census. That means states with large non-citizen populations could lose out on federal funding and political representation, as both are tied to census numbers.

• Real-World Example: A construction worker in a mixed-status family might worry about filling out the census form truthfully, fearing potential consequences. If enough people share that fear, their community, and potentially their entire state, could end up underrepresented and underfunded.

The Big Picture

This law essentially redefines who counts when it comes to political representation. It raises critical questions about how we define "representation" and whether excluding non-citizens aligns with the principles of the 14th Amendment, which mandates equal protection under the law. The bill also contains a severability clause (SEC. 4), meaning that even if parts of it are struck down in court, the rest will remain in effect. This suggests a built-in anticipation of legal challenges.